Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) is the custodian of the largest commercial database on the planet. A leading source of credit and risk intelligence to companies (from multi-nationals to small businesses), D&B recently organized a fascinating and insightful webinar on Brexit.
While the scope of the webinar was global and covered the projected impact of Brexit on both advanced and emerging economies, D&B offered several important observations on the near term consequences of Brexit on the U.S. economy and the implications for Canada.
Near term impact on U.S. economy:
- Corporate profits likely to slip, implying downside for business investment.
- Sustained strength of U.S. dollar could weigh on commodity prices.
- U.S. growth outlook (approximately 2% per year thru’ 2020) unchanged, as is the risk of recession.
Implications for Canada:
Since existing bi-lateral trade between the U.K. and Canada is relatively small (4.46% direct U.K. investment in Canada versus 50.45% direct U.S. investment in Canada) the direct effects of Brexit on our domestic economy are likely to be minimal.
The Brexit webinar also included a hugely significant Global Growth Forecast to 2020. Advanced Economies (including our own) are likely to grow at an average of 2.0% per year (1.5% or less in the U.K.) – this is the ‘new normal’ according to many economists.
But among the Emerging Economies, D&B made the following astonishing economic growth observations for India:
2012 – 6.3%
2013 – 7.1%
2014 – 7.2%
2015 – 7.3%
2016 – 7.4%
2017 – 7.9%
2018 – 8.00%
2019 – 7.00%
2020 – 8.00%