Fundamentals remain solid

Here's what we're thinking

September 12, 2017

Markets have recovered from a recent bout of weakness but signs of hesitation and uncertainty remain. Risks surrounding geo-political events (North Korea nuclear weapons testing), domestic U.S. politics (widening Russia – White House probe, gridlock in Congress on health care and tax reform), natural disasters (Hurricanes Harvey and Irma), commodity price swings (oil falling/rising 10%), impending changes to monetary policy (Fed starting to shrink its balance sheet), etc. have resulted in markets trading in wider ranges over the late summer in thin trading conditions. These important event risks and the lack of a meaningful market correction of 7% or more for over a year-and-a-half while the S&P500 trades near recent all-time highs leaves the market susceptible to a pullback during the seasonally weaker September-October period. We would view a sizeable pullback in markets as an opportunity to put any cash overweights to work given strong corporate fundamentals and low year-ahead recession risks.

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