Macro conditions remain supportive of global market cycle

Here's what we're thinking

November 2, 2016

Our outlook for global markets remains constructive as key macro variables suggest near term risks of recession remain low and policy settings stay supportive. U.S. economic indicators are maintaining a trend that points towards a 2.5% GDP growth pace in the third quarter while inflation risks remain generally modest. According to our leading indicators, heightened risks for the timing of the next recession is approximately two years away which leaves an adequate time horizon to maintain our overweight to equities. Given that we are in the later stages of this market cycle, a bias towards cyclicals remains appropriate across asset classes and sectors. Cyclical markets and segments that we prefer have continued to outperform over the past month including energy, materials, technology and financials, Canada and emerging markets.

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