Making the cycle normal again

Canadian and U.S. morning comments

February 2, 2017

The two political dramas of 2016 (Brexit and Trump) continued to flood headlines in recent weeks, providing a myriad of opportunities for investors to be distracted from fundamentals. Still, as the litany of pessimistic stories went viral, the S&P 500 hit new highs, global equities rallied, and the rebound in US/Eurozone/U.K. statistics persisted. The post-2008 recovery has been sub-par by most standards, but with evidence of synchronized global growth pushing bond yields and inflation higher, late-stage dynamics appear to be settling in. Moreover, as governments feel the pressure to spend again, fiscal policy could finally step in after a multi-year period of monetary policy domination. Notwithstanding the risks and rewards associated with pending political changes, we believe investors may ultimately come to realize that Brexit and Trump are also making the cycle normal again with late stage leadership and perils.

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