Volatility to remain elevated

Here's what we're thinking

September 22, 2016

With the end of the summer, a seasonal volatility pickup in September/October arrived right on time over the past few weeks. Central banks remain at the epicenter of market trends with accommodative policy set to remain despite a recent spike in bond yields. Continued patience from the Fed and clear signaling that the interest rate hiking cycle will be very shallow should keep the USD range-bound and maintain global market tailwinds. Other major central banks staying with ultra-loose monetary policy and signs of firming Chinese economic activity are also supporting the global economic recovery. Remaining economic slack, a very low level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve suggest economic cycle risks remain modest over the coming year. However, geopolitical risks (driving near-term market volatility) looks to remain elevated into year-end as U.S. November elections take centre stage with the first presidential candidate debate set for Monday September 26th a key near-term focus.

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