Economic data begins trending upward

Here's what we're thinking

Written by Lynn Healy-Goulet
December 28, 2016

Recent economic data releases suggest a loosely‐synchronized upturn in global activity data is taking hold as we head into 2017. The pace of positive gains in consumer spending, employment, business confidence, manufacturing activity and auto sales has surprised economists and resulted in the first set of upward economic forecast revisions in three years. Scotiabank expects global GDP growth to rise from 3.1% this year to 3.4% in 2017 and 2018. The brightening economic outlook, a bounce in commodity prices and a policy shift towards fiscal stimulus has bolstered our view that yields will trend higher over the coming year. Following today’s decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike its target rate range by 25bp to 0.5%‐0.75%, we look for three more rate hikes next year helping to bolster the upward bias in bond yields.

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