Higher volatility a normal feature of this stage of the cycle

Here's what we're thinking

Written by Lynn Healy-Goulet
March 27, 2018

Global markets have struggled to make new gains since late February. In our view, this is partly due to concerns surrounding widening trade frictions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, heightening fears of a potential global trade war. Thus far, U.S. trade action has targeted certain products (i.e. steel and aluminum). However, recent talk of broader economic sanctions directed at China and aimed at reducing the U.S.’s trade deficit with the world’s second largest economy could increase risks of an escalation. As long as protectionist action remains modest in scale and focussed on a few products, then risks of a global trade war should remain contained, in our view, helping to ease market anxiety. Near-term market focus should shift to monetary policy. The Fed’s rate hiking cycle remains on course with Jerome Powell earlier today steering the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee to its first increase in the Fed target rate (25bp to 1.75% at the upper bound) since taking over as Chairman of the Fed early this year.

Read more…