Refreshing our 2018 estimates

Canadian and U.S. morning comments

Written by Lynn Healy-Goulet
December 12, 2017

We have refreshed our SU estimates and have taken down cash flows, largely coming from oil sands.

Consensus estimates have SU’s 2018E CFPS at $5.45/sh. Using a similar price deck to the Street (US$55/bbl WTI, $0.80 FX, $16/bbl WTI-WCS discount, US$17/bbl NYH 321 crack spreads) our current estimate is $4.69/sh (down 12% from our previous estimate at the noted price deck).

Using strip pricing (US$56.54/bbl WTI, $0.79 FX, $16.94/bbl WTI-WCS discount, US $19.65/bbl NYH 321 crack spreads) our 2018E CFPS estimate is now $5.40/sh (~1% lower than consensus but with a more aggressive price deck).

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